ISDS 361B
Fall 2020
Case Study: COVID-19
This case study will give you the opportunity to work with some real data related to the COVID-19
pandemic. The Excel data in the file “COVID-19 case data” shows the number of new COVID-19 cases in
Orange County, CA, by specimen collection date, each day from September 1, 2020 until November 8,
2020 (source: https://occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in-oc, as of 11/16/20). Use these data,
along with what you have learned about forecasting, to write a report addressing each of the following:
1. Graph the time series and comment on the pattern using the terminology we have learned
(e.g., horizontal, trend, seasonal, cycles, random fluctuations).
2. Use an appropriate technique, based on the patterns you observed, to forecast the number of
new cases each day for the week of November 9 to November 15.
3. Comment on why you used whichever technique you chose in part 2. Why is it appropriate? If
you used exponential smoothing, how did you come up with a value for the smoothing
constant? If you used a simple moving average, how did you decide on the number of periods?
If you used linear regression, how did you decide whether or not to include seasonal dummies?
4. Comment on how accurate you expect your forecast to be. Should the reader expect the
actual values to precisely match your forecasted values? If not, about how much error would
you anticipate? You don’t have to do an exact calculation, just estimate it to give the reader
reasonable expectations. Would you expect it to be just as accurate in forecasting the number
of new cases in the first week December?
Additional instructions
You must submit two files and one video:
1. Your written report addressing each item in instructions. A short paragraph (i.e., a few
sentences) for each item would be sufficient. Tie it all together with an introductory paragraph
and a conclusion. Save and upload this file in pdf format. Keep in mind:
a. The maximum length is 2 pages, but there is no need for it to be that long. Shorter is
better as long as you respond to each item.
b. This file should contain only text – no Excel output. You may report numbers and
describe graphs, but you should not copy and paste them here. Just mention where
they are in your Excel file, which you will upload separately.
2. An Excel file showing all of your work.
3. A video posted to Flipgrid. In two minutes or less, explain your report to someone who knows
very little about analytics. Do not just read your report to the camera. Express it. Convey the
essence. Have fun with it! Your video will be hidden from other students until after the due
date.
Grading rubric (4 points possible)
ISDS 361B
Fall 2020
Excel file executes appropriate analyses – 1 point
Written report addresses all of the questions and faithfully conveys the results of the analyses – 1 point
Written report is clear, organized properly, and formatted correctly – 1 point
Flipgrid video conveys the report effectively – 1 point
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