Operations Forecasting

Select a business operations dataset from the internet or other sources which can be used for forecasting in the University Library.

Develop a minimum of three quantitative forecasts using Microsoft® Excel®.

  • Compare and contrast each quantitative forecast you develop.
  • Choose the one forecast you determine would be the best for the firm and be prepared to explain why you chose this.
  • Evaluate the impact this forecast would have on the firm from a financial metrics standpoint.

Develop a 700-word report in which you describe your forecasting project including details on all the assignment steps.

Format your assignment consistent with APA guidelines.

I have attached two examples of forecasting. (do not use this data)

Explanation:

a. to e.

          Single Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing with Trend  
 Month (t) Demand Three-Month  Moving Average Absolute  Deviation   Three-Month   Weighted Moving Average   Absolute  Deviation Ft   Absolute  Deviation Ft   Tt    FITt Absolute Deviation
1 61         66.000   65.000 1.700 66.700  
2 64         64.500   64.990 1.358 66.348  
3 67         64.350   65.644 1.217 66.861  
4 66 64.000 2.000 64.6 1.400 65.145 0.855 66.903 1.225 68.128 2.128
5 71 65.667 5.333 66.0 5.000 65.402 5.598 67.490 1.098 68.587 2.413
6 70 68.000 2.000 68.2 1.800 67.081 2.919 69.311 1.243 70.554 0.554
7 73 69.000 4.000 69.6 3.400 67.957 5.043 70.388 1.209 71.597 1.403
8 74 71.333 2.667 71.4 2.600 69.470 4.530 72.018 1.294 73.311 0.689
9 74 72.333 1.667 72.8 1.200 70.829 3.171 73.518 1.335 74.853 0.853
10 83 73.667 9.333 73.8 9.200 71.780 11.220 74.597 1.284 75.881 7.119
11 84 77.000 7.000 77.6 6.400 75.146 8.854 78.016 1.711 79.727 4.273
12 86 80.333 5.667 81.6 4.400 77.802 8.198  81.009 1.967  82.976 3.024
                       
      MAD     4.407   3.933   5.599       2.495
       

 

   

 

   

 

       

 

 

 

Based upon MAD, the exponential smoothing with trend forecast component appears to be the best method.
 
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