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This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case “Panera Bread Company” (UVA-F-1575). |
This spreadsheet was prepared by Marc Lipson, Associate Professor of Business Administration. Copyright © 2009 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail tosales@dardenbusinesspublishing.com. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation. |
Rev. Jun. 21, 2012 |
Exhibit 1 – Income Statement
Exhibit 1 | ||||
PANERA BREAD COMPANY | ||||
Historic Income Statements | ||||
(n thousands of dollars) | ||||
2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |
Number of Bakery Cafés(a) | 602 | 741 | 877 | 1,027 |
Revenue | 363,702 | 479,139 | 640,275 | 828,971 |
Costs of Goods Sold | ||||
Bakery Café | 210,822 | 288,706 | 399,760 | 542,916 |
Dough Sold to Franchisees | 54,967 | 65,627 | 75,036 | 85,618 |
Depreciation | 18,304 | 25,298 | 33,011 | 44,166 |
General and Administrative (b) | 31,502 | 38,735 | 50,240 | 63,502 |
315,595 | 418,366 | 558,047 | 736,202 | |
Operating Profit (EBIT) | 48,107 | 60,773 | 82,228 | 92,769 |
Interest Expense | 48 | 18 | 50 | 92 |
Pretax Profit | 48,059 | 60,755 | 82,178 | 92,677 |
Tax | 17,629 | 22,175 | 29,995 | 33,827 |
Net Income | 30,430 | 38,580 | 52,183 | 58,850 |
(a) Including both company-owned and franchised bakery cafés | ||||
(b) Includes pre-opening expenses and other expenses | ||||
Data source: Panera Bread Company annual reports, 2003–06. |
Exhibit 2 – Balance Sheet
Exhibit 2 | ||||||||||
PANERA BREAD COMPANY | ||||||||||
Historic Balance Sheets | ||||||||||
(in thousands of dollars) | ||||||||||
Historic Balance Sheets: | ||||||||||
2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
Cash and Short Term Investments | 51,421 | 58,054 | 60,651 | 72,122 | 90152.5 | 90153 | 75728 | 75728 | 75728 | 75728 |
Accounts Receivable | 12,394 | 17,256 | 25,158 | 30,919 | 38648.75 | 38649 | 32465 | 32465 | 32465 | 32465 |
Inventory | 4,350 | 5,398 | 7,358 | 8,714 | 10892.5 | 10893 | 9150 | 9150 | 9150 | 9150 |
Prepaid Expenses and Deferred Taxes | 3,887 | 3,905 | 9,607 | 15,863 | 19828.75 | 19829 | 16656 | 16656 | 16656 | 16656 |
Current Assets | 72,052 | 84,613 | 102,774 | 127,618 | 159522.5 | 159522.5 | 133999 | 133999 | 133999 | 133999 |
Property, Plant and Equipment | 146,362 | 201,725 | 268,809 | 345,977 | 432471.25 | |||||
Goodwill and Other Assets | 38,421 | 38,334 | 66,084 | 69,014 | ||||||
Total Assets | 256,835 | 324,672 | 437,667 | 542,609 | ||||||
Accounts Payable | 8,072 | 5,840 | 4,422 | 5,800 | ||||||
Acrued Expenses and Deferred Revenue | 37,571 | 49,865 | 82,443 | 103,810 | ||||||
Current Liabilities | 45,643 | 55,705 | 86,865 | 109,610 | ||||||
Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities | 13,616 | 27,604 | 33,824 | 35,333 | ||||||
Total Liabilities | 59,259 | 83,309 | 120,689 | 144,943 | ||||||
Equity | 197,576 | 241,363 | 316,978 | 397,666 | ||||||
256,835 | 324,672 | 437,667 | 542,609 | |||||||
Data source: Panera Bread Company annual reports, 2003–06. |
Exhibit 3 – 2007 Forecast
Exhibit 1 | |
PANERA BREAD COMPANY | |
2007 Operating Forecast(a) | |
(in thousands of dollars) | |
Number of Bakery-Cafes(b) | 1,230 |
Revenue | 1,050,000 |
Costs of Goods Sold | |
Bakery Café | 738,000 |
Dough Sold to Franchisees | 86,000 |
Depreciation | 60,000 |
General and Administrative (c) | 78,000 |
962,000 | |
Operating Profit (EBIT) | 88,000 |
Interest Expense | 150 |
Pretax Profit | 87,850 |
Tax | 31,500 |
Net Income | 56,350 |
Current Assets | 150,000 |
Property, Plant, and Equipment | 430,000 |
Goodwill and Other Assets | 110,000 |
Total Assets | 690,000 |
Current Liabilities | 130,000 |
Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities | 45,000 |
Total Liabilities | 175,000 |
(a) Case writer estimate based on history and third-quarter results. | |
(b) Including both company-owned and franchised bakery cafés | |
(c) Includes pre-opening expenses and other expenses |
Exhibit 4 – Stock Price
Panera Stock Price and Volume | ||
Panera Stock Price | Volume | |
6/1/06 | 65.53 | 277.1 |
6/2/06 | 65.95 | 358.8 |
6/5/06 | 64.62 | 432.6 |
6/6/06 | 64.62 | 745.8 |
6/7/06 | 62.47 | 1373.1 |
6/8/06 | 62.62 | 794.2 |
6/9/06 | 63.04 | 549 |
6/12/06 | 63.18 | 714.9 |
6/13/06 | 62.14 | 584.1 |
6/14/06 | 61.7 | 427.5 |
6/15/06 | 63.83 | 428.8 |
6/16/06 | 63.99 | 264.9 |
6/19/06 | 63.41 | 555.2 |
6/20/06 | 63.42 | 192.4 |
6/21/06 | 64.29 | 369.2 |
6/22/06 | 66.57 | 1245.8 |
6/23/06 | 66.73 | 396.9 |
6/26/06 | 67.5 | 491.9 |
6/27/06 | 67.03 | 509.5 |
6/28/06 | 65.58 | 748.5 |
6/29/06 | 66.87 | 382.8 |
6/30/06 | 67.24 | 351.7 |
7/3/06 | 66.94 | 86.2 |
7/4/06 | 66.94 | 0 |
7/5/06 | 66.37 | 328.3 |
7/6/06 | 65.5 | 417.9 |
7/7/06 | 64.15 | 359.6 |
7/10/06 | 64.83 | 312.2 |
7/11/06 | 64.44 | 529.1 |
7/12/06 | 63.83 | 476.9 |
7/13/06 | 61.25 | 938.2 |
7/14/06 | 62.1 | 924.9 |
7/17/06 | 60.71 | 1229.8 |
7/18/06 | 59.41 | 861.3 |
7/19/06 | 60.01 | 729.7 |
7/20/06 | 58.25 | 1124.5 |
7/21/06 | 57.69 | 770.5 |
7/24/06 | 59.56 | 906 |
7/25/06 | 59.27 | 754.8 |
7/26/06 | 51.93 | 6267.6 |
7/27/06 | 51.53 | 1469 |
7/28/06 | 52.59 | 1053.8 |
7/31/06 | 52.31 | 660.6 |
8/1/06 | 51.45 | 630.9 |
8/2/06 | 51.54 | 684.5 |
8/3/06 | 51.56 | 673.5 |
8/4/06 | 51.5 | 659.8 |
8/7/06 | 50.61 | 465.2 |
8/8/06 | 50.1 | 467 |
8/9/06 | 46.85 | 1755.4 |
8/10/06 | 48.08 | 1258.8 |
8/11/06 | 47.95 | 426.1 |
8/14/06 | 48.26 | 413.2 |
8/15/06 | 49.81 | 962.2 |
8/16/06 | 51.96 | 890.7 |
8/17/06 | 53.46 | 916.1 |
8/18/06 | 52.4 | 641.8 |
8/21/06 | 51.39 | 572.7 |
8/22/06 | 51.62 | 532.9 |
8/23/06 | 51.15 | 531.5 |
8/24/06 | 50.12 | 856.1 |
8/25/06 | 49.16 | 578.7 |
8/28/06 | 50.29 | 701 |
8/29/06 | 51.9 | 862.2 |
8/30/06 | 53.6 | 901.5 |
8/31/06 | 51.9 | 1038.7 |
9/1/06 | 52.88 | 491.3 |
9/4/06 | 52.88 | 0 |
9/5/06 | 54.75 | 1403.2 |
9/6/06 | 52.03 | 1591.5 |
9/7/06 | 51.52 | 1200.3 |
9/8/06 | 52.72 | 573.6 |
9/11/06 | 53.35 | 748.2 |
9/12/06 | 57.67 | 2127.9 |
9/13/06 | 56.89 | 857.3 |
9/14/06 | 57.46 | 690.3 |
9/15/06 | 58.9 | 724 |
9/18/06 | 58.22 | 926.8 |
9/19/06 | 58.09 | 651.8 |
9/20/06 | 60.6 | 946 |
9/21/06 | 60.08 | 887 |
9/22/06 | 59.03 | 633.9 |
9/25/06 | 60.11 | 757.9 |
9/26/06 | 60.11 | 504 |
9/27/06 | 59.57 | 508.9 |
9/28/06 | 59.1 | 655.7 |
9/29/06 | 58.25 | 407.7 |
10/2/06 | 58.17 | 642.5 |
10/3/06 | 58.35 | 774.9 |
10/4/06 | 64.75 | 3400.1 |
10/5/06 | 65.68 | 1166 |
10/6/06 | 64.41 | 730.9 |
10/9/06 | 66.02 | 595.9 |
10/10/06 | 65.19 | 941.8 |
10/11/06 | 64.22 | 813.9 |
10/12/06 | 67.2 | 1398.8 |
10/13/06 | 66.8 | 849.3 |
10/16/06 | 67.03 | 769 |
10/17/06 | 66.47 | 571.3 |
10/18/06 | 66.9 | 651.1 |
10/19/06 | 65.58 | 725.5 |
10/20/06 | 64.79 | 620 |
10/23/06 | 66.01 | 801.8 |
10/24/06 | 68.7 | 1196 |
10/25/06 | 64.41 | 4101.2 |
10/26/06 | 64.33 | 874.8 |
10/27/06 | 62.03 | 1089.2 |
10/30/06 | 61.98 | 1411.6 |
10/31/06 | 61.8 | 923.5 |
11/1/06 | 61.27 | 1157.2 |
11/2/06 | 60.66 | 974.1 |
11/3/06 | 59.15 | 1138.8 |
11/6/06 | 60.83 | 813.7 |
11/7/06 | 60.64 | 435.4 |
11/8/06 | 61.47 | 584.9 |
11/9/06 | 59.99 | 529 |
11/10/06 | 60.47 | 499.4 |
11/13/06 | 59.52 | 758.6 |
11/14/06 | 60.58 | 581.3 |
11/15/06 | 61.97 | 649.2 |
11/16/06 | 61.82 | 508.5 |
11/17/06 | 61.58 | 576.1 |
11/20/06 | 61.26 | 453.1 |
11/21/06 | 60.25 | 1248 |
11/22/06 | 60.87 | 568.3 |
11/23/06 | 60.87 | 0 |
11/24/06 | 60.97 | 115.9 |
11/27/06 | 59 | 661.7 |
11/28/06 | 58.08 | 968.6 |
11/29/06 | 57.6 | 1158.9 |
11/30/06 | 57.45 | 685.2 |
12/1/06 | 56.9 | 1330.7 |
12/4/06 | 58.68 | 632.9 |
12/5/06 | 58.79 | 786 |
12/6/06 | 56.94 | 3162 |
12/7/06 | 56.7 | 1556.3 |
12/8/06 | 56.89 | 1074.5 |
12/11/06 | 56.74 | 689 |
12/12/06 | 55.63 | 870 |
12/13/06 | 55.7 | 777.1 |
12/14/06 | 55.68 | 487.4 |
12/15/06 | 55.97 | 682 |
12/18/06 | 55.9 | 518.6 |
12/19/06 | 55.52 | 505.9 |
12/20/06 | 56.08 | 452.9 |
12/21/06 | 55.77 | 602.9 |
12/22/06 | 55.82 | 272.7 |
12/25/06 | 55.82 | 0 |
12/26/06 | 55.47 | 370.7 |
12/27/06 | 56.1 | 365.2 |
12/28/06 | 56.47 | 682.4 |
12/29/06 | 55.91 | 429.4 |
1/1/07 | 55.91 | 0 |
1/2/07 | 55.91 | 0 |
1/3/07 | 56.01 | 842.6 |
1/4/07 | 56.75 | 847.9 |
1/5/07 | 55.95 | 658.2 |
1/8/07 | 56.15 | 554.8 |
1/9/07 | 57.27 | 818.5 |
1/10/07 | 56.79 | 585.9 |
1/11/07 | 58.4 | 732.9 |
1/12/07 | 57.92 | 567.5 |
1/15/07 | 57.92 | 0 |
1/16/07 | 58.54 | 394.6 |
1/17/07 | 57.63 | 637.1 |
1/18/07 | 56.38 | 604.4 |
1/19/07 | 55.67 | 613 |
1/22/07 | 55.2 | 622.9 |
1/23/07 | 54.87 | 376.8 |
1/24/07 | 55.11 | 446.8 |
1/25/07 | 54.5 | 620.6 |
1/26/07 | 53.85 | 935.5 |
1/29/07 | 53.15 | 1184.3 |
1/30/07 | 54.58 | 1146.6 |
1/31/07 | 58.96 | 2966.4 |
2/1/07 | 57.93 | 1180.9 |
2/2/07 | 58.34 | 443.3 |
2/5/07 | 57.93 | 359.5 |
2/6/07 | 58.55 | 340.6 |
2/7/07 | 58.57 | 839.6 |
2/8/07 | 58.12 | 752.1 |
2/9/07 | 57.4101 | 1294 |
2/12/07 | 57.2 | 1149.1 |
2/13/07 | 58.4 | 845.5 |
2/14/07 | 58.92 | 512.4 |
2/15/07 | 59.47 | 592.2 |
2/16/07 | 59.91 | 1113.5 |
2/19/07 | 59.91 | 0 |
2/20/07 | 61.11 | 1330.1 |
2/21/07 | 61.97 | 980.9 |
2/22/07 | 62.2 | 919.3 |
2/23/07 | 62.63 | 667.7 |
2/26/07 | 62.23 | 705.1 |
2/27/07 | 60 | 1076.3 |
2/28/07 | 61.23 | 1187.7 |
3/1/07 | 60.07 | 693.9 |
3/2/07 | 59.1 | 533.8 |
3/5/07 | 58.13 | 746.4 |
3/6/07 | 57.84 | 1021.5 |
3/7/07 | 58.48 | 1541.1 |
3/8/07 | 59.29 | 1123.8 |
3/9/07 | 59.95 | 728.5 |
3/12/07 | 60.57 | 444.8 |
3/13/07 | 59.46 | 493.1 |
3/14/07 | 59.84 | 1008.3 |
3/15/07 | 59.74 | 381.1 |
3/16/07 | 59.1 | 430.4 |
3/19/07 | 59.32 | 425.3 |
3/20/07 | 59.35 | 378.9 |
3/21/07 | 60.42 | 464.3 |
3/22/07 | 61.16 | 404.4 |
3/23/07 | 61.02 | 231.1 |
3/26/07 | 60.77 | 231.1 |
3/27/07 | 59.95 | 340.6 |
3/28/07 | 58.78 | 710.6 |
3/29/07 | 58.76 | 392.8 |
3/30/07 | 59.06 | 336.2 |
4/2/07 | 59.09 | 438.7 |
4/3/07 | 60.22 | 842.8 |
4/4/07 | 57.75 | 2747.4 |
4/5/07 | 57.34 | 985 |
4/6/07 | 57.34 | 0 |
4/9/07 | 56.39 | 927.3 |
4/10/07 | 56.38 | 920.8 |
4/11/07 | 55.73 | 894.7 |
4/12/07 | 55.64 | 826.1 |
4/13/07 | 56.03 | 724.8 |
4/16/07 | 56.23 | 835.3 |
4/17/07 | 55.79 | 594.9 |
4/18/07 | 56.05 | 469.8 |
4/19/07 | 55.83 | 299.7 |
4/20/07 | 56.14 | 614 |
4/23/07 | 56.25 | 590.9 |
4/24/07 | 55.7 | 933.9 |
4/25/07 | 59.13 | 2897.3 |
4/26/07 | 57.45 | 1478 |
4/27/07 | 56.8 | 820.8 |
4/30/07 | 55.69 | 510.7 |
5/1/07 | 56.1 | 787.1 |
5/2/07 | 56.94 | 903.4 |
5/3/07 | 56.24 | 448.8 |
5/4/07 | 56.24 | 389.1 |
5/7/07 | 55.95 | 554.8 |
5/8/07 | 56.24 | 429.9 |
5/9/07 | 56.3 | 379.6 |
5/10/07 | 55.52 | 338.9 |
5/11/07 | 56.05 | 292.6 |
5/14/07 | 55.65 | 466.7 |
5/15/07 | 54.94 | 648.5 |
5/16/07 | 55.43 | 484 |
5/17/07 | 54.99 | 348.8 |
5/18/07 | 55.15 | 842.2 |
5/21/07 | 55.59 | 505.8 |
5/22/07 | 56.62 | 522.5 |
5/23/07 | 56.92 | 590.4 |
5/24/07 | 56.97 | 597.8 |
5/25/07 | 56.67 | 417.9 |
5/28/07 | 56.67 | 0 |
5/29/07 | 56 | 555.9 |
5/30/07 | 56.6 | 260.7 |
5/31/07 | 56.37 | 256.6 |
6/1/07 | 56.73 | 380 |
6/4/07 | 57.59 | 445.2 |
6/5/07 | 58.32 | 849.5 |
6/6/07 | 50.28 | 5000 |
6/7/07 | 48.78 | 2703.2 |
6/8/07 | 49.01 | 1847.2 |
6/11/07 | 47.85 | 1554.6 |
6/12/07 | 47.64 | 858.8 |
6/13/07 | 48.33 | 864.5 |
6/14/07 | 48.29 | 715.7 |
6/15/07 | 47.98 | 626.5 |
6/18/07 | 47.82 | 708 |
6/19/07 | 47.15 | 677.2 |
6/20/07 | 47.04 | 719.2 |
6/21/07 | 46.41 | 1347.1 |
6/22/07 | 46.69 | 1218.7 |
6/25/07 | 46.35 | 963.3 |
6/26/07 | 46.29 | 751.2 |
6/27/07 | 46.65 | 755.5 |
6/28/07 | 46.02 | 469.8 |
6/29/07 | 46.06 | 570.8 |
7/2/07 | 46.02 | 686.5 |
7/3/07 | 47.55 | 825.5 |
7/4/07 | 47.55 | 0 |
7/5/07 | 47.68 | 1537.5 |
7/6/07 | 47.9 | 632.7 |
7/9/07 | 47.23 | 828.6 |
7/10/07 | 47.48 | 663.7 |
7/11/07 | 46.7 | 689.7 |
7/12/07 | 46.87 | 648.6 |
7/13/07 | 46.49 | 553.2 |
7/16/07 | 47.26 | 819.1 |
7/17/07 | 46.83 | 451 |
7/18/07 | 46.37 | 396.1 |
7/19/07 | 46.45 | 395.7 |
7/20/07 | 46.1 | 542.2 |
7/23/07 | 46.9 | 769.4 |
7/24/07 | 45.9799 | 1043.5 |
7/25/07 | 41.81 | 2989.1 |
7/26/07 | 40.58 | 1740.8 |
7/27/07 | 39.79 | 1365.4 |
7/30/07 | 41.38 | 1548.2 |
7/31/07 | 40.64 | 605.6 |
8/1/07 | 39.8 | 1508.9 |
8/2/07 | 41 | 807.8 |
8/3/07 | 41.58 | 1170.3 |
8/6/07 | 43.04 | 1069.2 |
8/7/07 | 45.56 | 1362.2 |
8/8/07 | 47.19 | 2828 |
8/9/07 | 46.37 | 2177 |
8/10/07 | 43.31 | 1881.6 |
8/13/07 | 44.1 | 910.5 |
8/14/07 | 44.36 | 1162.6 |
8/15/07 | 43.54 | 844.6 |
8/16/07 | 43.91 | 1158.9 |
8/17/07 | 45.23 | 1219.8 |
8/20/07 | 45 | 764.9 |
8/21/07 | 44.65 | 363.8 |
8/22/07 | 45.04 | 473.6 |
8/23/07 | 44.39 | 567.7 |
8/24/07 | 44.59 | 518 |
8/27/07 | 43.69 | 420.3 |
8/28/07 | 42.8 | 639.9 |
8/29/07 | 43.21 | 400 |
8/30/07 | 42.96 | 591.5 |
8/31/07 | 43.74 | 447.8 |
9/3/07 | 43.74 | 0 |
9/4/07 | 43.59 | 677.5 |
9/5/07 | 43.24 | 627.6 |
9/6/07 | 44.46 | 650.5 |
9/7/07 | 44.13 | 607.4 |
9/10/07 | 43.1 | 548.6 |
9/11/07 | 43.4 | 302.6 |
9/12/07 | 43.08 | 373.9 |
9/13/07 | 43.93 | 334.8 |
9/14/07 | 44.53 | 262.7 |
9/17/07 | 43.87 | 308.8 |
9/18/07 | 44.39 | 639.4 |
9/19/07 | 44.48 | 733.3 |
9/20/07 | 43.26 | 437.1 |
9/21/07 | 43.28 | 339.4 |
9/24/07 | 43 | 410.9 |
9/25/07 | 40.59 | 1049.7 |
9/26/07 | 41.36 | 845.1 |
9/27/07 | 41.56 | 428 |
9/28/07 | 40.8 | 537.6 |
10/1/07 | 42.19 | 1079.8 |
10/2/07 | 43.12 | 786.2 |
10/3/07 | 46.57 | 2384 |
10/4/07 | 47.27 | 1306.2 |
10/5/07 | 48.11 | 657.1 |
10/8/07 | 47.62 | 410.4 |
10/9/07 | 48.19 | 378.5 |
10/10/07 | 48.95 | 1009.4 |
10/11/07 | 48.66 | 904.5 |
10/12/07 | 47.77 | 536.2 |
10/15/07 | 47.57 | 714.3 |
10/16/07 | 48.12 | 483.7 |
10/17/07 | 48.57 | 620.7 |
10/18/07 | 47.82 | 710.9 |
10/19/07 | 46.85 | 947.1 |
10/22/07 | 47.2 | 770.6 |
10/23/07 | 48.81 | 910.7 |
10/24/07 | 43.61 | 2796.6 |
10/25/07 | 41.66 | 1437 |
10/26/07 | 41.05 | 955.7 |
10/29/07 | 41.01 | 951.2 |
10/30/07 | 40.73 | 1011.1 |
10/31/07 | 40.99 | 809.6 |
11/1/07 | 39.28 | 840.5 |
11/2/07 | 38.21 | 1001.6 |
11/5/07 | 37.89 | 752.5 |
11/6/07 | 37.25 | 939.9 |
11/7/07 | 37.19 | 675.2 |
11/8/07 | 37.4799 | 637 |
11/9/07 | 36.62 | 527 |
11/12/07 | 36.96 | 599.4 |
11/13/07 | 37.85 | 486.1 |
11/14/07 | 37.14 | 532.6 |
11/15/07 | 37.11 | 388.3 |
11/16/07 | 37.01 | 617.6 |
11/19/07 | 35.91 | 494 |
11/20/07 | 34.64 | 681.3 |
11/21/07 | 34.27 | 857.5 |
11/22/07 | 34.27 | 0 |
11/23/07 | 35.09 | 505.7 |
11/26/07 | 35.29 | 795.8 |
11/27/07 | 35.51 | 664.2 |
11/28/07 | 38.01 | 1259.9 |
11/29/07 | 39.47 | 784.8 |
11/30/07 | 40.07 | 1270.7 |
Panera Stock Price 38869 38870 38873 38874 38875 38876 38877 38880 38881 38882 38883 38884 38887 38888 38889 38890 38891 38894 38895 38896 38897 38898 38901 38902 38903 38904 38905 38908 38909 38910 38911 38912 38915 38916 38917 38918 38919 38922 38923 38924 38925 38926 38929 38930 38931 38932 38933 38936 38937 38938 38939 38940 38943 38944 38945 38946 38947 38950 38951 38952 38953 38954 38957 38958 38959 38960 38961 38964 38965 38966 38967 38968 38971 38972 38973 38974 38975 38978 38979 38980 38981 38982 38985 38986 38987 38988 38989 38992 38993 38994 38995 38996 38999 39000 39001 39002 39003 39006 39007 39008 39009 39010 39013 39014 39015 39016 39017 39020 39021 39022 39023 39024 39027 39028 39029 39030 39031 39034 39035 39036 39037 39038 39041 39042 39043 39044 39045 39048 39049 39050 39051 39052 39055 39056 39057 39058 39059 39062 39063 39064 39065 39066 39069 39070 39071 39072 39073 39076 39077 39078 39079 39080 39083 39084 39085 39086 39087 39090 39091 39092 39093 39094 39097 39098 39099 39100 39101 39104 39105 39106 39107 39108 39111 39112 39113 39114 39115 39118 39119 39120 39121 39122 39125 39126 39127 39128 39129 39132 39133 39134 39135 39136 39139 39140 39141 39142 39143 39146 39147 39148 39149 39150 39153 39154 39155 39156 39157 39160 39161 39162 39163 39164 39167 39168 39169 39170 39171 39174 39175 39176 39177 39178 39181 39182 39183 39184 39185 39188 39189 39190 39191 39192 39195 39196 39197 39198 39199 39202 39203 39204 39205 39206 39209 39210 39211 39212 39213 39216 39217 39218 39219 39220 39223 39224 39225 39226 39227 39230 39231 39232 39233 39234 39237 39238 39239 39240 39241 39244 39245 39246 39247 39248 39251 39252 39253 39254 39255 39258 39259 39260 39261 39262 39265 39266 39267 39268 39269 39272 39273 39274 39275 39276 39279 39280 39281 39282 39283 39286 39287 39288 39289 39290 39293 39294 39295 39296 39297 39300 39301 39302 39303 39304 39307 39308 39309 39310 39311 39314 39315 39316 39317 39318 39321 39322 39323 39324 39325 39328 39329 39330 39331 39332 39335 39336 39337 39338 39339 39342 39343 39344 39345 39346 39349 39350 39351 39352 39353 39356 39357 39358 39359 39360 39363 39364 39365 39366 39367 39370 39371 39372 39373 39374 39377 39378 39379 39380 39381 39384 39385 39386 39387 39388 39391 39392 39393 39394 39395 39398 39399 39400 39401 39402 39405 39406 39407 39408 39409 39412 39413 39414 39415 39416 65.53 65.95 64.62 64.62 62.47 62.62 63.04 63.18 62.14 61.7 63.83 63.99 63.41 63.42 64.290000000000006 66.569999999999993 66.73 67.5 67.03 65.58 66.87 67.239999999999995 66.94 66.94 66.37 65.5 64.150000000000006 64.83 64.44 63.83 61.25 62.1 60.71 59.41 60.01 58.25 57.69 59.56 59.27 51.93 51.53 52.59 52.31 51.45 51.54 51.56 51.5 50.61 50.1 46.85 48.08 47.95 48.26 49.81 51.96 53.46 52.4 51.39 51.62 51.15 50.12 49.16 50.29 51.9 53.6 51.9 52.88 52.88 54.75 52.03 51.52 52.72 53.35 57.67 56.89 57.46 58.9 58.22 58.09 60.6 60.08 59.03 60.11 60.11 59.57 59.1 58.25 58.17 58.35 64.75 65.680000000000007 64.41 66.02 65.19 64.22 67.2 66.8 67.03 66.47 66.900000000000006 65.58 64.790000000000006 66.010000000000005 68.7 64.41 64.33 62.03 61.98 61.8 61.27 60.66 59.15 60.83 60.64 61.47 59.99 60.47 59.52 60.58 61.97 61.82 61.58 61.26 60.25 60.87 60.87 60.97 59 58.08 57.6 57.45 56.9 58.68 58.79 56.94 56.7 56.89 56.74 55.63 55.7 55.68 55.97 55.9 55.52 56.08 55.77 55.82 55.82 55.47 56.1 56.47 55.91 55.91 55.91 56.01 56.75 55.95 56.15 57.27 56.79 58.4 57.92 57.92 58.54 57.63 56.38 55.67 55.2 54.87 55.11 54.5 53.85 53.15 54.58 58.96 57.93 58.34 57.93 58.55 58.57 58.12 57.4101 57.2 58.4 58.92 59.47 59.91 59.91 61.11 61.97 62.2 62.63 62.23 60 61.23 60.07 59.1 58.13 57.84 58.48 59.29 59.95 60.57 59.46 59.84 59.74 59.1 59.32 59.35 60.42 61.16 61.02 60.77 59.95 58.78 58.76 59.06 59.09 60.22 57.75 57.34 57.34 56.39 56.38 55.73 55.64 56.03 56.23 55.79 56.05 55.83 56.14 56.25 55.7 59.13 57.45 56.8 55.69 56.1 56.94 56.24 56.24 55.95 56.24 56.3 55.52 56.05 55.65 54.94 55.43 54.99 55.15 55.59 56.62 56.92 56.97 56.67 56.67 56 56.6 56.37 56.73 57.59 58.32 50.28 48.78 49.01 47.85 47.64 48.33 48.29 47.98 47.82 47.15 47.04 46.41 46.69 46.35 46.29 46.65 46.02 46.06 46.02 47.55 47.55 47.68 47.9 47.23 47.48 46.7 46.87 46.49 47.26 46.83 46.37 46.45 46.1 46.9 45.979900000000001 41.81 40.58 39.79 41.38 40.64 39.799999999999997 41 41.58 43.04 45.56 47.19 46.37 43.31 44.1 44.36 43.54 43.91 45.23 45 44.65 45.04 44.39 44.59 43.69 42.8 43.21 42.96 43.74 43.74 43.59 43.24 44.46 44.13 43.1 43.4 43.08 43.93 44.53 43.87 44.39 44.48 43.26 43.28 43 40.590000000000003 41.36 41.56 40.799999999999997 42.19 43.12 46.57 47.27 48.11 47.62 48.19 48.95 48.66 47.77 47.57 48.12 48.57 47.82 46.85 47.2 48.81 43.61 41.66 41.05 41.01 40.729999999999997 40.99 39.28 38.21 37.89 37.25 37.19 37.479900000000001 36.619999999999997 36.96 37.85 37.14 37.11 37.01 35.909999999999997 34.64 34.270000000000003 34.270000000000003 35.090000000000003 35.29 35.51 38.01 39.47 40.07
Exhibit 5 – Comparables
Exhibit 4 | |||||
PANERA BREAD COMPANY | |||||
Data on Comparable Firm Capital Structure | |||||
(numbers in thousands except for prices) | |||||
Estimates for Year-End 2007 | 11/30/2007 | ||||
Revenue | EBIT | LT Debt | Price | Shares | |
Quick Service Restaurants | |||||
McDonald’s Corp | 22,786,600 | 3,879,000 | 8,174,500 | 56.32 | 1,165,300 |
Wendy’s Group Inc. | 1,263,717 | 19,900 | 739,333 | 8.10 | 28,884 |
Burger King Holdings Inc. | 2,234,000 | 290,000 | 943,000 | 25.90 | 135,000 |
Domino’s Pizza, Inc. | 1,462,870 | 193,910 | 1,720,083 | 13.86 | 59,665 |
Jack in the box Inc. | 2,513,431 | 216,996 | 433,303 | 29.95 | 59,736 |
Casual Dining | |||||
Darden Restaurants Inc. | 5,567,100 | 574,400 | 491,600 | 38.25 | 141,400 |
Ruby Tuesday Inc. | 1,410,227 | 154,855 | 514,338 | 13.11 | 53,240 |
PF Chang’s China Bistro Inc. | 1,084,193 | 53,312 | 191,195 | 25.59 | 24,152 |
The Cheesecake Factory Inc. | 1,511,577 | 110,803 | 175,000 | 23.29 | 69,152 |
California Pizza Kitchen Inc. | 632,884 | 21,517 | 0 | 15.91 | 28,358 |
Fast Casual | |||||
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | 1,085,782 | 113,706 | 0 | 133.15 | 32,805 |
Starbucks Corp. | 9,411,497 | 1,053,945 | 550,000 | 23.39 | 727,600 |
Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. | 329,652 | 28,518 | 12,585 | 28.91 | 17,657 |
Data sources: Investex, Onesource, Yahoo! Finance, and individual firm 10-K filings. |
Worksheet
Multiperiod Forecast | ||||||||||
Historic | Forecast | |||||||||
2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
Revenue | 363,702 | 479,139 | 640,275 | 828,971 | 1,050,000 | 1,312,500 | 1,312,500 | 1,102,500 | 1,102,500 | 1,102,500 |
Costs of Goods Sold | ||||||||||
Bakery Café | 210,822 | 288,706 | 399,760 | 542,916 | 738,000 | 922,500 | 922,500 | 774,900 | 968,625 | 968,625 |
Dough Sold to Franchisees | 54,967 | 65,627 | 75,036 | 85,618 | 86,000 | 107,500 | 107,500 | 90,300 | 112,875 | 112,875 |
Depreciation | 18,304 | 25,298 | 33,011 | 44,166 | 60,000 | 75,000 | 75,000 | 63,000 | 78,750 | 78,750 |
General and Administrative | 31,502 | 38,735 | 50,240 | 63,502 | 78,000 | 97,500 | 97,500 | 81,900 | 102,375 | 102,375 |
315,595 | 418,366 | 558,047 | 736,202 | 962,000 | 1,202,500 | 1,202,500 | 1,010,100 | 1,262,625 | 1,262,625 | |
Operating Profit | 48,107 | 60,773 | 82,228 | 92,769 | 88,000 | 110,000 | 110,000 | 92,400 | -160,125 | -160,125 |
Interest Expense | 48 | 18 | 50 | 92 | 150 | |||||
Pretax Profit | 48,059 | 60,755 | 82,178 | 92,677 | 87,850 | |||||
Tax | 17,629 | 22,175 | 29,995 | 33,827 | 31,500 | |||||
Net Income | 30,430 | 38,580 | 52,183 | 58,850 | 56,350 | |||||
Current Assets | 72,052 | 84,613 | 102,774 | 127,618 | 150,000 | |||||
Property, Plant, and Equipment | 146,362 | 201,725 | 268,809 | 345,977 | 430,000 | |||||
Goodwill and Other Assets | 38,421 | 38,334 | 66,084 | 69,014 | 110,000 | |||||
Total Assets | 256,835 | 324,672 | 437,667 | 542,609 | 690,000 | |||||
Current Liabilities | 45,643 | 55,705 | 86,865 | 109,610 | 130,000 | |||||
Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities | 13,616 | 27,604 | 33,824 | 35,333 | 45,000 | |||||
Total Liabilities | 59,259 | 83,309 | 120,689 | 144,943 | 175,000 | |||||
Debt | ||||||||||
Equity | 197,576 | 241,363 | 316,978 | 397,666 | ||||||
Total Liabilities and Equity | 256,835 | 324,672 | 437,667 | 542,609 | ||||||
Historic Percentage of Sales | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Average | ||||
Bakery Café | 57.97% | 60.26% | 62.44% | 65.49% | 70.29% | 63.29% | ||||
Dough Sold to Franchisees | 15.11% | 13.70% | 11.72% | 10.33% | 8.19% | 11.81% | ||||
Depreciation | 5.03% | 5.28% | 5.16% | 5.33% | 5.71% | 5.30% | ||||
General and Administrative (b) | 8.66% | 8.08% | 7.85% | 7.66% | 7.43% | 7.94% | ||||
87% | 87% | 87% | 89% | 92% | 88% | |||||
Current Assets | 19.81% | 17.66% | 16.05% | 15.39% | 14.29% | 16.64% | ||||
Property, Plant, and Equipment | 40.24% | 42.10% | 41.98% | 41.74% | 40.95% | 41.40% | ||||
Goodwill and Other | 10.56% | 8.00% | 10.32% | 8.33% | 10.48% | 9.54% | ||||
Current Liabilities | 12.55% | 11.63% | 13.57% | 13.22% | 12.38% | 12.67% | ||||
Deferred Rent and Other | 3.74% | 5.76% | 5.28% | 4.26% | 4.29% | 4.67% | ||||
Tax Rate | 36.68% | 36.50% | 36.50% | 36.50% | 35.86% | 36.41% |