# solution

A convenience store recently started to carry a new brand of
soft drink. Management is interested in estimating future sales
volume to determine whether it should continue to carry the new
brand or replace it with another brand. The following table
provides the number of cans sold per week. Use both the trend
projection with regression and the exponential
smoothing? (let

a=0.4

with an initial forecast for week 1 of

614?)

methods to forecast demand for week

13.

Compare these methods by using the mean absolute deviation and
mean absolute percent error performance criteria. Does your
analysis suggest that sales are trending and if? so, by
how? much?

Period 1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
9 10
11 12
Sales 614 598
638 738 648
613 743 693
708 735 683
755

?(i) Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast. The
forecast for week 13 is _________ .

?(Enter your response rounded to the nearest
whole? number.)

Specify the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute
percent error (MAPE). (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal
places.)

MAPE: _______ %

(ii) Obtain the exponential smoothing forecast.

The forecast for week 13 is _______ . (Enter your response to
the nearest whole number.)

Specify the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute
percent error (MAPE). (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal
places.)

MAPE: _______ %

Based on MAD, the best method is _________ . (trend projection
with regression / exponential smoothing a = 0.4)

Based on MAPE, the best method is _________ . (trend
projection with regression / exponential smoothing a = 0.4)

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