QUESTION:
- Company A wants to test three major forecasting techniques on a historical data that they have in terms of the forecasting accuracy on a certain product’s weekly sales data. They have recorded the sales values in the last 13 weeks and you can see the corresponding value of each week as a time series data in the below table.
Period |
Actual |
1 |
141 |
2 |
104 |
3 |
145 |
4 |
147 |
5 |
150 |
6 |
150 |
7 |
132 |
8 |
136 |
9 |
108 |
10 |
103 |
11 |
113 |
12 |
141 |
13 |
121 |
Please use this historical data to perform the following actions:
- Plot the time series as a scatter plot
- Make forecasts starting from the 9th period for five periods using moving average method (you can choose n=5; that is the number of historical data points you should use in calculation)
- Make forecasts starting from the 9th period for five periods using weighted moving average method (you can use the following weight scheme wt-1= 0.3, wt-1= 0.2, wt-1= 0.2, wt-1= 0.15, wt-1= 0.15 )
- Make forecasts starting from the 9th period for five periods using exponential smoothing method (you can use smoothing factor as 0.25 )
- Calculate the accuracy metrics we covered in class for all the methods you used above. Make a comparison between the techniques.
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